Afghanistan: A Ploy, Not A Promise

 

TheAfghangovernmentandnon-Pushtunsingeneral,areupsetwitharecentAmericanannouncementthatthey,alongwithmostNATOtroops,plantohaltmajormilitaryoperationsayearaheadofschedule(by2013).TheU.S.,andsomeotherNATOallies,wouldshifttocommandoandtrainingoperations.TheSpecialForcesandcommandoswouldcontinuetohuntdownTalibananddruggangleaders,whileforeigntrainerscontinuedtoupgradetheskillsofAfghansoldiersandpolice. The largest foreign force in Afghanistan is American (90,000 troops), but a quarter of those will be gone within a year. What many (Afghans and foreigners) fear is that Afghan soldiers and police will not be able to effectively replace the foreign troops. There is also a lot of trepidation about the Afghan police, who continue to be poorly trained and led, and generally unwelcome. Afghans have no tradition of rural police, and the tribal leaders resent the loss of policing authority. Most Afghans believe the police are ineffective in dealing with crime, or tribal leaders who oppose "outsiders" (the police) imposing on traditional powers. Yet each year more and more rural Afghans report encountering honest and effective police. But the rate of improvement is slow, and most Afghan cops are still inept and corrupt.

Another problem is money. The Afghan security forces will reach their planned strength of 350,000 (soldiers and police) by 2014. This force will cost $6 billion a year to run and the Afghan government cannot afford it. Some 90 percent of the money must come from foreign donors. But most donor countries (especially American and European) are having cash-flow problems and France has suggested that the Afghan security forces be reduced 35 percent (to 230,000) to ease the burden on donor states. After all, the Taliban only have about 20,000 gunmen. Throw in another 10,000 bandits and hired guns working for drug gangs and other criminal organizations, and that appears reasonable. But no one will know for sure until the foreign troops back off or leave and the Afghans take over. That is already happening in some parts of the country, and the results are mixed. Some NATO nations believe Afghan forces will be less likely to succeed if American and NATO forces leave earlier than 2014. Everyone agrees that there is a risk of civil war when foreign troops cease combat operations. The Taliban and some pro-Taliban Pushtun tribes have made no secret of their desire to run the country again. Afghans fear a resumption of the civil war, which was interrupted in late 2001, when the Americans intervened on the side of the Northern Alliance (a coalition of non-Pushtun groups from the non-Pushtun north).

Afghanistan: A Ploy, Not A Promise

Forces: Shrinking The U.S. Army

 

The U.S. Army is facing some hefty budget cuts (at least 5-10 percent over the next decade). Linked with growing costs (for equipment, supplies, and wages) makes this cut even larger. For example, over the next decade defense spending will decline from 3.6 percent to 2.8 percent of GDP. The current army solution is to cut manpower by 80,000 over the next decade, and this will result in a reduction of combat brigades to as few as 32 (from the current 45) and total strength of 490,000 troops.

These cuts are nothing new as army leaders have seen it coming for some time. Three years ago, despite major combat operations in Iraq and Afghanistan, the U.S. Army went through a major reorganization. The end result was the increase in the number of combat brigades from 33 to 48 (soon reduced to 45 because of budget cuts). This required the transfer of over 40,000 people from combat-support jobs to the combat brigades. In doing this, the army got some experience in reducing personnel strength without losing capability. Most of this reset was completed, with all the new brigades ready for service by 2010.

Five years ago, Congress ordered the army to increase its strength by 65,000 troops, and the army planned to add five more combat brigades. The army completed that personnel expansion, to 574,000 troops by 2009, but budget cuts reduced the combat brigade expansion.

Forces: Shrinking The U.S. Army

DoD Buzz | The murky way forward in Afghanistan

 

Secretary Panetta told reporters Wednesday on the famous Doomsday Plane that America’s combat role in Afghanistan could be over by next year. Then all hell broke loose.

Top lawmakers on Capitol Hill were caught completely off guard — they began firing off announcements questioning or criticizing what appeared to be a new, earlier goal for a U.S. withdrawal. Headlines began to pop up all over the place: America Speeds Up Exit From Afghan War. Everyone wondered: What goes on here?

Panetta said later, and Pentagon spokesmen reiterated, that the 2013 timeline was aspirational, and that it was all within the structure of the existing American commitment to hand over control of the war by the end of 2014. We’ve got to start the transition sometime, DoD seemed to say, so we might as well start soon and hope that by next year, the Afghans will have taken charge of their own security.

DoD Buzz | The murky way forward in Afghanistan

U.S. Central Command | Mission accomplished: Marine Osprey squadron flies last mission of Afghanistan deployment

 

A Marine Corps MV-22B Osprey squadron flew its final combat mission, to complete its deployment to Afghanistan.

Marine Medium Tiltrotor Squadron 162 has been deployed at Camp Bastion, Afghanistan, for more than six months. The Marines will soon return to Marine Corps Air Station New River, N.C.

The squadron’s final mission in Afghanistan was to transport Marines with 1st Battalion, 8th Marine Regiment to a small patrol base in Helmand province, who will relieve Marines of 1st Battalion, 6th Marine Regiment.

“These Marines are extremely proficient, and helpful to us ‘ground pounders,’” said Staff Sgt. Ricky Lara, a platoon sergeant with 1st Battalion, 8th Marine Regiment. “My guys have a lot to worry about once we get on the ground but in the air we know we are in the good hands of our fellow Marines.”

Marine Medium Tiltrotor Squadron 162 flies the MV-22B Osprey. The Osprey has the ability to takeoff vertically like a helicopter, and then tilt its rotors forward granting speed and maneuverability comparable to a traditional airplane.

The Marine Corps relies on the versatile Osprey for various missions in Afghanistan including troop and cargo transport, battlefield illumination, aerial resupply and assault insert of combat troops. Marine Corps Ospreys are deployed as part of 2nd Marine Aircraft Wing (Forward), the aviation combat element for the southwestern regional command of the NATO International Security Assistance Force in Afghanistan.

U.S. Central Command | Mission accomplished: Marine Osprey squadron flies last mission of Afghanistan deployment

Report Calls for Dispersing US Bases in Mideast | Military.com

 

An influential Washington think-tank called Tuesday for the U.S. military to redraw its map of bases throughout the Middle East to keep out of range of new Iranian weapons that could threaten American troops.

In a new report, the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments warned that Tehran's investment in anti-ship and precision guided missiles designed to strike targets throughout the region, combined with sophisticated air defense systems, means that U.S. may have to shift its presence in the region in the coming decade.

The U.S. also needs to change the forces it deploys, the authors concluded. It should focus on trimming older, un-stealthy, short-range strike fighters in exchange for stealthier, long-range bombers and unmanned aircraft that can penetrate Iranian airspace to deliver knockout punches on hardened targets, said Mark Gunzinger.  He briefed reporters Tuesday morning on his new report, "Outside-In, Operating from Range to Defeat Iran's Anti-Access and Area-Denial Threats."

Report Calls for Dispersing US Bases in Mideast | Military.com

Report Calls for Dispersing US Bases in Mideast | Military.com

 

An influential Washington think-tank called Tuesday for the U.S. military to redraw its map of bases throughout the Middle East to keep out of range of new Iranian weapons that could threaten American troops.

In a new report, the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments warned that Tehran's investment in anti-ship and precision guided missiles designed to strike targets throughout the region, combined with sophisticated air defense systems, means that U.S. may have to shift its presence in the region in the coming decade.

The U.S. also needs to change the forces it deploys, the authors concluded. It should focus on trimming older, un-stealthy, short-range strike fighters in exchange for stealthier, long-range bombers and unmanned aircraft that can penetrate Iranian airspace to deliver knockout punches on hardened targets, said Mark Gunzinger.  He briefed reporters Tuesday morning on his new report, "Outside-In, Operating from Range to Defeat Iran's Anti-Access and Area-Denial Threats."

Report Calls for Dispersing US Bases in Mideast | Military.com

Report Calls for Dispersing US Bases in Mideast | Military.com

 

An influential Washington think-tank called Tuesday for the U.S. military to redraw its map of bases throughout the Middle East to keep out of range of new Iranian weapons that could threaten American troops.

In a new report, the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments warned that Tehran's investment in anti-ship and precision guided missiles designed to strike targets throughout the region, combined with sophisticated air defense systems, means that U.S. may have to shift its presence in the region in the coming decade.

The U.S. also needs to change the forces it deploys, the authors concluded. It should focus on trimming older, un-stealthy, short-range strike fighters in exchange for stealthier, long-range bombers and unmanned aircraft that can penetrate Iranian airspace to deliver knockout punches on hardened targets, said Mark Gunzinger.  He briefed reporters Tuesday morning on his new report, "Outside-In, Operating from Range to Defeat Iran's Anti-Access and Area-Denial Threats."

Report Calls for Dispersing US Bases in Mideast | Military.com

U.S. Central Command | Mission accomplished: Marine Osprey squadron flies last mission of Afghanistan deployment

 

A Marine Corps MV-22B Osprey squadron flew its final combat mission, to complete its deployment to Afghanistan.

Marine Medium Tiltrotor Squadron 162 has been deployed at Camp Bastion, Afghanistan, for more than six months. The Marines will soon return to Marine Corps Air Station New River, N.C.

The squadron’s final mission in Afghanistan was to transport Marines with 1st Battalion, 8th Marine Regiment to a small patrol base in Helmand province, who will relieve Marines of 1st Battalion, 6th Marine Regiment.

“These Marines are extremely proficient, and helpful to us ‘ground pounders,’” said Staff Sgt. Ricky Lara, a platoon sergeant with 1st Battalion, 8th Marine Regiment. “My guys have a lot to worry about once we get on the ground but in the air we know we are in the good hands of our fellow Marines.”

Marine Medium Tiltrotor Squadron 162 flies the MV-22B Osprey. The Osprey has the ability to takeoff vertically like a helicopter, and then tilt its rotors forward granting speed and maneuverability comparable to a traditional airplane.

The Marine Corps relies on the versatile Osprey for various missions in Afghanistan including troop and cargo transport, battlefield illumination, aerial resupply and assault insert of combat troops. Marine Corps Ospreys are deployed as part of 2nd Marine Aircraft Wing (Forward), the aviation combat element for the southwestern regional command of the NATO International Security Assistance Force in Afghanistan.

U.S. Central Command | Mission accomplished: Marine Osprey squadron flies last mission of Afghanistan deployment

U.S. Central Command | Mission accomplished: Marine Osprey squadron flies last mission of Afghanistan deployment

 

A Marine Corps MV-22B Osprey squadron flew its final combat mission, to complete its deployment to Afghanistan.

Marine Medium Tiltrotor Squadron 162 has been deployed at Camp Bastion, Afghanistan, for more than six months. The Marines will soon return to Marine Corps Air Station New River, N.C.

The squadron’s final mission in Afghanistan was to transport Marines with 1st Battalion, 8th Marine Regiment to a small patrol base in Helmand province, who will relieve Marines of 1st Battalion, 6th Marine Regiment.

“These Marines are extremely proficient, and helpful to us ‘ground pounders,’” said Staff Sgt. Ricky Lara, a platoon sergeant with 1st Battalion, 8th Marine Regiment. “My guys have a lot to worry about once we get on the ground but in the air we know we are in the good hands of our fellow Marines.”

Marine Medium Tiltrotor Squadron 162 flies the MV-22B Osprey. The Osprey has the ability to takeoff vertically like a helicopter, and then tilt its rotors forward granting speed and maneuverability comparable to a traditional airplane.

The Marine Corps relies on the versatile Osprey for various missions in Afghanistan including troop and cargo transport, battlefield illumination, aerial resupply and assault insert of combat troops. Marine Corps Ospreys are deployed as part of 2nd Marine Aircraft Wing (Forward), the aviation combat element for the southwestern regional command of the NATO International Security Assistance Force in Afghanistan.

U.S. Central Command | Mission accomplished: Marine Osprey squadron flies last mission of Afghanistan deployment

European Unit Withdrawals Could be Only 1st Step | Military.com

 

The Army is keeping quiet about official details, but Army spokesman Col. Tom Collins said the service intends to announce its formal plan for cutting the active force in the coming weeks.
Currently, the Army’s active ground force is made up of 22 infantry BCTs, 15 heavy BCTs, seven Stryker BCTs and the 3rd Armored Cavalry Regiment, which has been designated to transform into another Stryker BCT.
For now, the Army plans to retain all of its Stryker BCTs. Stryker units are the largest in the BCT structure, with three maneuver battalions.
It’s still unclear which of the five heavy and five infantry BCTs the Army will cut from the active force, but combat capability and strategic location inside the U.S. and abroad are some of the considerations Army planners will look at when cutting, said the official who spoke to Military.com.
Army leaders say 520,000 is the right number for the active component. Army planners would have to get very creative if the economic state of the country forces the service to cut to a number below 500,000, the senior Army official said.
“You’ve got to look at support brigades and headquarters elements,” the official said. Maybe “one HQ can take care of 10 units. We are looking at division, corps and theater assets.”
Another option is to look at cutting headquarters elements from some BCTs and attaching the maneuver battalions to other BCT formations. “If I cut five more BCT HQs and take all of the battalions and put them in other units, have I reduced the combat power?” the official asked.
A recent study by the Institute for Defense Analysis recommended that that Army move some of its heavy BCTs over to the National Guard. But this is not a popular solution inside the Pentagon, since it would take longer to bring a heavy unit in the Guard up to deployment readiness, the official said.

European Unit Withdrawals Could be Only 1st Step | Military.com

William McGurn: Obama Brings Back the Constitution - WSJ.com

 

Conservatives can be a grudging lot. That's especially true when it comes to President Obama. Even where he's been in the right—whether it be killing Osama bin Laden or promoting charter schools—we can be stingy with praise.

So let us now, in full public view, credit his greatest public service as president: He is sending Americans back to the Constitution.

Yes, in the Bush years the air was also thick with accusations that the Constitution was being "shredded." We now know that the professed concern for the Constitution was fake. We know it was fake because the same Bush claims of executive authority in war that provoked such apoplexy in our pundits, professors and politicos have for the most part been embraced by Mr. Obama—all to the distinct sound of silence.

Today we have a wholly different order of constitutional complaint. Where the accusations against Mr. Bush were led by prestigious law faculties and law firms, those against Mr. Obama reflect a more popular hue. Where the indictments of Mr. Bush were largely limited to war policy, those against Mr. Obama's extend broadly to all areas of policy: foreign, economic and social. And where critics of Mr. Bush were obsessed with outcome, the discontent with Mr. Obama has been magnified by the uneasy sense that he is changing the fundamental rules of the game.

William McGurn: Obama Brings Back the Constitution - WSJ.com

Pakistan Taliban Leader Reported Dead in US Strike | Military.com

 

Intercepted militant radio communications indicate the leader of the Pakistani Taliban may have been killed in a recent U.S. drone strike, Pakistani intelligence officials said Sunday. A Taliban official denied that.

The report coincided with sectarian violence -- a bomb blast in eastern Pakistan that killed 14 people in a Shiite religious procession.

The claim that the Pakistani Taliban chief was killed came from officials who said they intercepted a number of Taliban radio conversations. In about a half a dozen intercepts, the militants discussed whether their chief, Hakimullah Mehsud, was killed on Jan. 12 in the North Waziristan tribal area. Some militants confirmed Mehsud was dead, and one criticized others for talking about the issue over the radio.

Pakistan Taliban Leader Reported Dead in US Strike | Military.com

Idea to Take 'D' Out of PTSD Studied | Military.com

 

The president of the American Psychiatric Association says he is "very open" to a request from the Army to come up with an alternative name for post-traumatic stress disorder so that troops returning from combat will feel less stigmatized and more encouraged to seek treatment.

Dr. John Oldham, who serves as senior vice president and chief of staff at the Houston-based Menninger Clinic, said he is looking into the possibility of updating the association's diagnostic manual with a new subcategory for PTSD. The subcategory could be "combat post-traumatic stress injury," or a similar term, he said.

"It would link it clearly to the impact and the injury of the combat situation and the deployment experience, rather than what people somewhat inaccurately but often assume, which is that you got it because you weren't strong enough," Oldham said.

The potential change was prompted by a request from Gen. Peter Chiarelli, the Army's vice chief of staff, who wrote to Oldham last year, suggesting APA drop the world "disorder" from PTSD.

"Calling it a disorder contributes to the stigma and makes it so some folks -- not all, but some folks -- don't get the help they need," Chiarelli said.

Idea to Take 'D' Out of PTSD Studied | Military.com

Intelligence: U-2s Ends A 22 Year Mission

 

On December 18th, the last (for the moment) American U-2 mission was flown over Iraq. These missions began in 1990, after the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait, and continued until December, 2011. The last decade has been the busiest for the U-2 in decades. Because of the spy satellite quality sensors carried by U-2s, and a limited number of spy satellites up there, there was always more demand for U-2s sorties than could be provided. Three years ago, for example, two 41 year old U-2s achieved a record 25,000 hours in the air. One of these aircraft had made three belly (landing gear up) landings, requiring extensive rebuilding after each incident.

Intelligence: U-2s Ends A 22 Year Mission

Counter-Terrorism: Pakistan Backs War Against NATO

 

On January 1st, the Pakistani Taliban agreed to halt all terror attacks inside Pakistan. In return, the Pakistani military will not interfere with Taliban movements, as long as these movements are part of supporting Taliban attacks against NATO forces in Afghanistan. The Pakistani Taliban will deploy their forces into Afghanistan under the leadership of Afghan Taliban leader Mullah Omar. This deal is supposed to include the autonomous Haqqani Network, which often links up with the Taliban, but considers itself a separate operation.

The Pakistani Taliban also promised to force smaller terror groups to cease attacks inside Pakistan. This is supposed to include kidnapping, theft, and sundry crimes committed in the name of God. Some Islamic terror activity is actually gangsters committing crimes under the guise of Islamic radicalism. Some of this stuff will continue but the Pakistanis expect the suicide bombings, assassinations, and attacks on troops and police to cease.

This odd turn of events is the result of years of American pressure on the Pakistani government to get the Pakistani military and intelligence agencies to stop supporting and protecting Islamic terror groups. Pakistan has been doing this since the 1970s and created the Taliban in the early 1990s. Even though many of the Islamic terrorists have declared war on Pakistan in the last decade (because Pakistan sided with the United States after September 11, 2001), the Pakistani military still sees their terrorist allies as an asset. The Pakistani government is less enthusiastic about this but admits, to the West, that the Pakistani military is autonomous in many ways.

Counter-Terrorism: Pakistan Backs War Against NATO

Counter-Terrorism: The Curse Of The Internet

 

Last year, several Islamic terror organizations make a major effort to recruit via the Internet. Apparently this was not very successful. This is partly because supporters of Islamic terrorism are more inclined to talk about it, than actually take action. That's partly because Islamic terrorists have earned themselves a bad reputation within the Islamic community because of all the publicity given to the many Moslems killed by terror attacks. Another bit of unappetizing reality is the fate of so many Islamic terrorists, especially if they catch the attention of the Americans. There, the best you can hope for is a quick death. If you are really unlucky, you get captured, prosecuted and sent to a supermax prison for a life of isolation and not much else.

Another reason for fearing recruitment calls over the Internet is the fact that multiple intelligence and police agencies monitor the Internet for signs of recruiting, and any other terrorist activity.

While it was initially believed that the Internet was a boon to Islamic terrorists, this has not been the case. The main reason for this is that the Internet gives terrorists the illusion that they have a safe, secure form of communication. But there are so many eavesdropping tools available to police, that can detect this communication, that the net result is the Internet has become a prime counter-terrorist weapon.

Counter-Terrorism: The Curse Of The Internet

India-Pakistan: Desperate, Cornered And Willing To Kill

 

The Pakistani military is still feuding with NATO and its own government. This has been going on since the American raid into Pakistan last May, which killed Osama bin Laden. Both the U.S. and Pakistani politicians were appalled at the duplicity of the Pakistani military, which had always insisted it had no idea where bin Laden was. Pakistani politicians have always feared and despised their own military. During Pakistan's brief history (since 1947) the military has forcibly taken control of the government half the time. Usually, the reason given was massive corruption and incompetence in an elected government (accurate accusations). But this was often an excuse to settle a dispute between politicians and generals over who could steal what. The latest such incidence was in 1999, when the military increased their unauthorized (by the civilian government) attacks on Indian troops along the Kashmir border. This led to a brief war (which Pakistan, as usual, lost). In response, the elected government tried to remove the head of the military (Pervez Musharraf) from his job, but instead Musharraf took control of the government. But, as always happens, the military eventually becomes very unpopular, because they are no more effective at running the country than elected politicians.

India-Pakistan: Desperate, Cornered And Willing To Kill

Air Force Will Lose Hundreds of Planes in New Pentagon Plan | Danger Room | Wired.com

 

Danger Room has learned that around 200 airplanes, mostly older models, will eventually be retired without replacement. That represents about a 5 percent reduction in the overall fleet of about 4,000 aircraft. Exactly which planes will go is unclear. But under any scenario, the positions of thousands of airmen who fly and maintain those planes will be phased out. The majority of those airmen will be reservists and Air National Guardsmen.[Emphasis added]

Signaleer’s take—this is backward.  If there are to be reductions it should be in the Active side.  Let the Guard and Reserves, that operate for a fraction of the cost, pick up the slack.

Air Force Will Lose Hundreds of Planes in New Pentagon Plan | Danger Room | Wired.com

News from The Associated Press

 

A stray cat that survived two trips to a Utah animal shelter's gas chamber now has a new home.

Officials at West Valley City's animal shelter in Utah say the cat named Andrea hadn't been adopted for 30 days when shelter officials tried to put her to death in October. She survived, so they gassed her again.

Shelter officials detected no vital signs and presumed she was dead after the second try, so they put her in a plastic bag in a cooler. But when they checked the bag, they saw she had vomited on herself and had hypothermia but was alive.

The shelter then decided to stop trying to kill her.

"It was just one of those things where they thought this cat obviously really wants to live," West Valley City spokesman Aaron Crim told the Salt Lake Tribune (http://bit.ly/ylvSDw ). "Let's give it a chance to find a permanent home."

News from The Associated Press

Mexican Grand Warlock predicts Obama loss in 2012

 

Mexico's Grand Warlock predicted US President Barack Obama would fail to win re-election and two more Latin American leaders would be diagnosed with cancer, in a traditional New Year's forecast Tuesday.

The Grand Warlock, or "Brujo Mayor" in Spanish, leads a Mexican tradition of "brujeria" or sorcery centered in the southeastern city of Catemaco.

The Grand Warlock, also known as Antonio Vazquez, said that Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, who claims to have beaten an unspecified cancer, would have a "terrible relapse."

Argentina's President Cristina Kirchner, Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff, former Brazilian leader Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Paraguay's Fernando Lugo have been diagnosed with cancer in recent years.

Chavez suggested last month that the spate of cancer among leftist leaders could be a US plot.

Vazquez, who sports a long grey beard, put the cancer cases down to "witchcraft" against Latin American leaders, during a Mexico City news conference giving his 25th annual predictions.

Mexico's Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), which ruled for more than 70 years to 2000, would return to power with its candidate Enrique Pena Nieto winning the presidency in July, according to Vazquez, who bases his predictions on tarot card readings and observations of the stars.

Vazquez, who claims to have a 75-80 percent accuracy rate, last year said the euro would weaken and recession would return to developed economies but he also predicted, incorrectly, that a Latin American leader would be assassinated

Mexican Grand Warlock predicts Obama loss in 2012