“…spend less rather than tax anyone more”: the TEA Party, microcosmically

Debunking Elizabeth Warren — or more generally, the entirety of the left's rather remarkably unsophisticated understanding of how free market capitalism exists within the American system of governance set up by our Founders and Framers and supposedly protected by our Constitution.

http://proteinwisdom.com/?p=30930

Taking Cain Seriously

Conventional wisdom holds that this week's Chris Christie boomlet means the GOP is desperate for a savior. The reality is that, at some point, Republicans will have to start drilling deeper on their own into the candidates they've got.

Put it this way: The GOP nominee is running against the incumbent president. Unlike the incumbent, Herman Cain has at least twice identified the causes of a large failing enterprise, designed goals, achieved them, and by all accounts inspired the people he was supposed to lead. Not least, Mr. Cain's life experience suggests that, unlike the incumbent, he will adjust his ideas to reality.

Herman Cain is a credible candidate. Whether he deserves to be president is something voters will decide. But he deserves a serious look.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204226204576599031274832242.html?mod=djemEditorialPage_h

Flat Is the New Fair

Newt Gingrich and Jon Huntsman have tax rate reform proposals that move toward a flatter tax. But the candidate who comes closest to a true flat tax is Herman Cain, the former Godfather's Pizza CEO. His argument for a "9-9-9" plan puts the current income and payroll taxes in the shredder and replaces them with a 9% personal income tax with no deductions, a 9% net business income tax, and a 9% national sales tax.

That would be rocket fuel for the economy, though the combination of a federal sales tax and an income tax is a big worry. But at least Mr. Cain has super-sized solutions to an economy with super-sized problems.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204138204576600760327683564.html?mod=djemEditorialPage_h

Army Cutting 50,000 Soldiers

The U.S. Army plans to reduce its number of Soldiers by nearly 50,000 during a five-year span, a general said.

The Army Times reported Lt. Gen. Thomas P. Bostick, service personnel chief, said the reductions would being in March.

The Army will cut forces in various ways, including buyouts, voluntary and involuntary separations and retirements, to bring the total to 520,400 active-duty Soldiers by Sept. 30, 2016, the report said.

Bostick said the Army would focus first on the temporary 22,000-Soldier increase started three years ago to support the troop surge in Afghanistan. A second phase will involve Soldiers added during an expansion that began in 2007.

http://www.military.com/news/article/2011/army-cutting-50000-soldiers.html?ESRC=eb.nl

FLASHBACK:

Army must expand, Pentagon says

The Army needs to add at least 30,000 active-duty soldiers to its ranks to fulfill its responsibilities around the world without becoming stretched dangerously thin, senior Army officials warn.

"You can't do what we've been tasked to do with the number of people we have," Undersecretary of the Army Nelson Ford said in an interview last week. "You can see a point where it's going to be very difficult to cope."

http://articles.latimes.com/2008/dec/26/nation/na-army26

Perseverance pays off for Cowboys receiver Jesse Holley

Much of the focus in Dallas over the last week has been on the health of quarterback Tony Romo and whether he'll be able to endure the pain of cracked ribs (and a punctured lung) enough to play against the Redskins. But the Holley story too has captured the imagination of those fans.

For good reason. Holley's path to the Cowboys was anything but typical. In 2009, the onetime cellphone salesman was the winner of Irvin's reality show "4th and Long" — pro football's answer to "American Idol" — and was invited to training camp. He wound up making the practice squad, then last season worked his way onto the 53-man roster as a special-teams standout.

Then, late in the game at San Francisco, injuries to Dez Bryant and Miles Austin created an opening for him at receiver. Holley made catches of 11 and eight yards on consecutive downs in the 10-play, fourth-quarter drive that set up the tying field goal. Those were the first catches of his pro career.

Irvin, who watched the early games with his fellow NFL Network analysts but retired to his office for the Dallas game "because I needed some one-on-one time with my Cowboys," peeked out his door then hollered, " '4th and Long' in the house!" when Holley made his first catch.

http://articles.latimes.com/2011/sep/25/sports/la-sp-cowboys-jesse-holley-20110926

The Truth About Who Fights for Us

It should no more be necessary to write this article than to prove that there were Jews killed in the World Trade Center on 9/11. And yet the mythology refuses to die. Just last week, two well-educated and well-known writer acquaintances of mine remarked in passing on the "fact" that those who serve in the U.S. military typically have no other career options. America's soldiers, they said, were poor and black.

They don't mean this to denigrate their service—no, they mean it as a critique of American society, which turns its unemployed into cannon fodder. Especially today with high unemployment, the charge goes, hapless youths we fail to educate are embarking on a one-way trip to Afghanistan.

These allegations—most frequently leveled at the Army, the military's biggest service and the one with the highest casualty rate—are false.

In 2008, using data provided by the Defense Department, the Heritage Foundation found that only 11% of enlisted military recruits in 2007 came from the poorest one-fifth, or quintile, of American neighborhoods (as of the 2000 Census), while 25% came from the wealthiest quintile. Heritage reported that "these trends are even more pronounced in the Army Reserve Officer Training Corps (ROTC) program, in which 40% of enrollees come from the wealthiest neighborhoods, a number that has increased substantially over the past four years."

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Indeed, the Heritage report showed that "low-income families are underrepresented in the military and high-income families are overrepresented. Individuals from the bottom household income quintile make up 20.0 percent of Americans who are age 18-24 years old but only 10.6 percent of the 2006 recruits and 10.7 percent of the 2007 recruits. Individuals in the top two quintiles make up 40.0 percent of the population, but 49.3 percent of the recruits in both years."

What about the charge that our Army is disproportionately black? This too is false, as is clear from data for fiscal 2010 available on the Army's website: Whereas blacks comprise 17% of Americans ages 18-39 with high school degrees, they represent only a slightly larger proportion of enlisted soldiers, at 21%.

Meanwhile, whites were significantly overrepresented among enlisted Army personnel in 2010. While 58% of Americans 18-39 years old are white, 64% of the Army's enlisted men and women are. Whites are underrepresented to a minor degree in only one category, in which blacks are overrepresented: Army officers. While 74% of 25-54 year-olds with bachelor's degrees are white, 72% of Army officers are white. While 8% of 25-54 year-olds with B.A.s are black, 13% of Army officers are.

Is it true that with a shaky economy, blacks have been driven to enlist in the Army in dramatically increased numbers? The 2010 numbers say otherwise. While 60% of 18-24 year-olds with a high school degree are white and 17% are black, 64% of new enlistees are white and 19% are black.

The missing bit of explanation for Army demographics is that Asians and Pacific Islanders, which make up the fastest-growing American demographic, are underrepresented in the Army, as are Hispanics. The explanation for the former is probably cultural, while for the latter it is a matter of difficulty speaking English. Only 12% of Army enlisted personnel are Hispanic, as opposed to 21% in the 18-39 year old population with a high school degree.

Why do myths persist despite all the evidence? One reason is lack of firsthand exposure to the military: Doing a journalistic embed with American troops or visiting a U.S. military base—or simply having some friends in the military—would disabuse my acquaintances of their beliefs.

This detachment is the result of a withdrawal of our urban elites from military service. And it suits the interests of many members of the urban elite to believe that the military they do not join is composed of poor, uneducated victims of an unfair society.

The hidden assumption in this myth is that an institution that is heavily black is an inferior institution. The myth of the ghetto Army is as nastily racist as it is false.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111903791504576587244025371456.html?mod=djemEditorialPage_h

Herman's Weekly Commentary: Cain or More of the Same

For example, Mitt Romney said during the last presidential debate that when he served as governor of Massachusetts, he didn't inhale. His plan for economic growth and jobs suggests otherwise. It tries to incorporate tax policy, regulatory policy, trade policy, energy policy, labor policy, human capital policy and fiscal policy all in one plan, which makes it complex. Worst yet, his ideas pivot off of the current tax code.

Just like all of the other presidential primary candidates if they have a plan, they swap out one set of tax code loopholes for another set of loopholes. This keeps the lobbyists employed and the tax code growing, but nothing gets solved.

My 9-9-9 economic growth and jobs plan deals with economic growth and jobs. It starts with throwing out the existing tax code. Maybe this is why it fits on two pages instead of Mitt's 160-page book. My plan can be crafted into legislation that I plan to get Congress to pass in the first 90 days of my administration. Mitt's plan would require at least several pieces of big legislation, which would take a long time to get passed in Congress due to the complexity alone. 

Our economy is on life support. It can't afford to keep waiting.

One of my guiding principles is that, if the public understands it, they will support it and demand that Congress pass it. I now realize that I should have also said if they can read it first. I invite all of you to read Mitt's 160-page book and then get back to me. Or, you can read my two-page plan, which is easy to read and understand.

http://secure.campaigner.com/Campaigner/Public/t.show?Ne5J--9wfd-k1ZVl4

Obama Administration Set to Ban Asthma Inhalers Over Environmental Concerns

Remember how Obama recently waived new ozone regulations at the EPA because they were too costly? Well, it seems that the Obama administration would rather make people with Asthma cough up money than let them make a surely inconsequential contribution to depleting the ozone layer:

Asthma patients who rely on over-the-counter inhalers will need to switch to prescription-only alternatives as part of the federal government's latest attempt to protect the Earth's atmosphere.

The Food and Drug Administration said Thursday patients who use the epinephrine inhalers to treat mild asthma will need to switch by Dec. 31 to other types that do not contain chlorofluorocarbons, an aerosol substance once found in a variety of spray products.

The action is part of an agreement signed by the U.S. and other nations to stop using substances that deplete the ozone layer, a region in the atmosphere that helps block harmful ultraviolet rays from the Sun.

But the switch to a greener inhaler will cost consumers more. Epinephrine inhalers are available via online retailers for around $20, whereas the alternatives, which contain the drug albuterol, range from $30 to $60.

http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/obama-administration-ban-asthma-inhalers-over-environmental-concerns_594113.html

Late News: Inspector general: Bush-era Pentagon officials cleared of wrongdoing

A three-year government investigation has found no wrongdoing by Bush-era Pentagon officials when they gave war briefings to retired military analysts who served as TV and radio commentators.

The probe by the Pentagon inspector general was a response to a 2008 Pulitzer Prize-winning article in the New York Times that implied the former military officers, some of whom worked for or were defense contractors, received financial favors in return for their commentary and that they were tools in a propaganda campaign.

Sources familiar with the IG's final report said it will say officials broke no rules or laws when they provided information briefings, some from then-Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld during the Iraq and Afghanistan wars.

The IG also found no evidence that any analyst or his defense contractor employer received any favorable treatment or procurement contracts due to his work as an on-air commentator, according to the sources.

"The report basically says the Pentagon activities were in compliance with DOD [Department of Defense] directives and instructions," a government official familiar with the findings told The Washington Times. In terms of financial favors, "they didn't find any evidence of that," the source said.

Speed-of-light experiments give baffling result at Cern

The speed of light is the Universe's ultimate speed limit, and much of modern physics - as laid out in part by Albert Einstein in his theory of special relativity - depends on the idea that nothing can exceed it.

Thousands of experiments have been undertaken to measure it ever more precisely, and no result has ever spotted a particle breaking the limit.

But Dr Ereditato and his colleagues have been carrying out an experiment for the last three years that seems to suggest neutrinos have done just that.

Neutrinos come in a number of types, and have recently been seen to switch spontaneously from one type to another.

The team prepares a beam of just one type, muon neutrinos, sending them from Cern to an underground laboratory at Gran Sasso in Italy to see how many show up as a different type, tau neutrinos.

In the course of doing the experiments, the researchers noticed that the particles showed up 60 billionths of a second sooner than light would over the same distance - a tiny fractional change, but a consistent one.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-15017484

The Constitution and Limited Government

The administrative state, of course, always seeks to extend its reach and magnify its power. This is an intrinsic feature of a system where administration and regulation replace politics as the ordinary means of making policy. If there are to be limits to the reach of the burgeoning administrative state, they will be political limits imposed by the people in the ordinary course of partisan politics. The advent of the administrative state poses the greatest challenge to limited government, because it elevates the welfare of the community—whether real or imagined—over the rights and liberties of individuals. The task today is to confine the federal government to its delegated powers.

http://www.hillsdale.edu/news/imprimis/archive/issue.asp?year=2011&month=09

Rules To Die From

The U.S. Army leadership is upset at the recent award of the Medal of Honor (the highest American award for valor) to U.S. Marine Corps sergeant Dakota Meyer. The army generals don't begrudge sergeant Meyer his medal, because he risked his life two years ago, for several hours, in order to save the lives of 24 Afghan and American troops trapped in an ambush. What disturbs the army leaders most is that Meyer was not alone while performing his heroic act. He had a companion, Army captain William Swenson, But Swenson has received no recognition from the army. That's because Swenson has been vocal about why he and sergeant (then corporal) Meyer had to perform those heroic acts (of driving a vehicle into the ambush, grabbing survivors and shooting their way out, and doing it five times.) Before the two off them drove off on their suicidal mission. Swenson tried to get a nearby army headquarters to provide artillery and air support for the trapped men, but the officers on duty refused.

This was because a new general had taken over command of U.S. troops in Afghanistan three months earlier, and issued strict rules on the use of American firepower when there was any risk to Afghan civilians. This was part of an effort to reduce civilian casualties. Troops in Afghanistan, and everyone back home, were told that these new rules would not prevent American troops getting fire support if their lives were in danger. But for Meyer and Swenson, the restrictions were killing American troops (in this case, four marines and a soldier.) The closest American headquarters had maps showing the ambush taking place near a village, so there was great reluctance to use bombs or artillery.

Meyer and Swenson both subsequently left the military. But Swenson kept pressing the army to punish the officers at the nearby headquarters who repeatedly refused to provide any fire support for the trapped troops. If Swenson, Meyer and two other marines had not driven in, at great risk to themselves, over twenty U.S. and American troops would have died. The two other marines were awarded the Navy Cross (the second highest award). Swenson is believed to be up for a medal, but the army won't say what, or when. The army has not punished anyone for refusing fire support, and apparently wishes the entire matter would fade away.

http://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htmurph/articles/20110920.aspx

Career Conscious Commanders Leave Marines Naked In Battle

Over the last four years, the U.S. Marine Corps has been switching to flame retardant combat uniforms. This came about because a few troops  suffered severe burns while wearing the older uniforms, and because a number of new flame retardant materials have become available. There was a problem with this, in that the flame retardant cloth was much less sturdy than the cotton and cotton blends used previously. Thus while a cotton combat uniform would last 3-4 months in Afghanistan, a flame retardant one would often start falling apart (tears and split seams) after 3-4 weeks of action. The brass are responding by sending more uniforms, allowing limited use of cotton ones and having cotton thread used with fire retardant cloth. But that does not really solve the problem of troops seeking some sturdy uniforms and relief from the heat in the combat zone, versus generals who seek to keep the casualty rate down no matter what.

This has been going on for a while. For example, five years ago, marines in Iraq were in a rebellious mood over a ban on the use of polyester undergarments. These high-tech T-shirts employ fibers that wick sweat away from the body, cooling the wearer, or keeping them warmer in cold weather. Trouble is, polyester melts if exposed to flame, which often happens when a roadside bomb goes off, and you are in the way. The marines were told they could still wear the official, less effective, high-tech underwear they were issued. It took about six months before someone reminded the brass that the official stuff, called polypro, was also made of polyester. Oops. So polypro was also banned for use outside the wire (outside bases). The marines were not amused.

The initial ban was widely attributed to some craven generals who had been frightened by some weasel PAO (Public Affairs Officer) who pointed out how harmful it would be to a commanders career if the media got hold of a story about a marine getting killed because his polyester T-shirt melted. Marines pointed out, to anyone who would listen, that the t-shirt was protected by the uniform blouse and body armor. If the flame got through all that, you were probably dead already. The media did not pick on this angle.

http://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htmoral/articles/20110920.aspx

Cheap, Fast And The Marine Way

The U.S. Marine Corps needed a new electronic warfare pod, one they could use on their Harrier vertical-takeoff jets, helicopters and Shadow UAVs for operations in Afghanistan, and similar operations. There was nothing available, and developing a new one, they were told, would cost billions and take years. So the marines designed and developed their own. That cost $20 million and four years. Purchase price for each pod is $600,000. The Intrepid Tiger II communications intelligence and jamming pod weighs 137 kg (300 pounds) and is about the same size as an anti-radiation missile. For the Shadow UAV, the pod components will be reconfigured to fit inside the UAV.

The pod can monitor low power communications (cell phones and walkie talkies) and jam devices used for roadside bombs. By cutting out all the "might happen" stuff and concentrating on what the marines needed right now, the developers were able to get the pod into action this year.

http://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htecm/articles/20110920.aspx

Female Troubles

The American military, and the U.S. Veterans Administration, has been hustling to adjust to the growing number of American veteran who are female. This is particularly urgent because more women are being killed or wounded in combat zones, including PTSD (stress) injures. Women, doctors have long known, do not respond to pain, injuries or stress in the same way that men do. Military medicine has had to adapt in order to provide adequate help for male and female troops with problems.

In the United States, women began entering the armed forces in a big way 40 years ago. Currently about 14 percent of active duty troops are women (and 18 percent of the reserves). At the same time, about eight percent of 22 million veterans are women, and six percent of patients in the Veterans Administration (VA) medical system are as well. By the end of the decade, ten percent of veterans will be female, as will be over nine percent of those receiving medical care from the VA.

All this has caused some problems for the VA, which initially failed to adequately prepare for the growing number of women joining (and destined to become veterans). Thus the VA suddenly found itself in unknown territory, because the last decade has produced, for the first time, a large number of female combat veterans. There are now about a quarter million of them, including over 5,000 receiving disability benefits (for injuries received in combat, or non-combat, operations).

The female veterans do not respond to the stresses of military service, or the physical injuries, the same way men do. This forced the VA to adapt, or at least try to. For example, more services have to be provided for female veterans, because they are, like their civilian counterparts, more likely (about twice as likely) to seek care. It's one of the reasons women live longer than men. They take better care of themselves, and do not suffer in silence.

http://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htatrit/articles/20110920.aspx

America's costly war machine

http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/la-oe--bilmes-war-cost-20110918,0,999206.story?track=rss
 

Ten years into the war on terror, the U.S. has largely succeeded in its attempts to destabilize Al Qaeda and eliminate its leaders. But the cost has been enormous, and our decisions about how to finance it have profoundly damaged the U.S. economy.

Really?  The damage has come from the war?

Many of these costs were unnecessary. We chose to fight in Iraq and Afghanistan with a small, all-volunteer force, and we supplemented the military presence with a heavy reliance on civilian contractors. These decisions not only placed enormous strain on the troops but dramatically pushed up costs. Recent congressional investigations have shown that roughly 1 of every 4 dollars spent on wartime contracting was wasted or misspent.

It's not clear here what Blimes and Stiglitz think is unnecessary.  The all-volunteer force?  Maybe they'd prefer a draft, that would make things cheaper—you don't have to pay well when no one has a choice to serve or not.  Civilian contractors?  Maybe a point to be made there, but most of the data seems to indicate that contractors save money over the long haul as much as it's a pain for those of us in green suits to not be able to be self-sufficient on the ground.  Waste and abuse is a problem, 'twas ever thus, however.

To date, the United States has spent more than $2.5 trillion on the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, the Pentagon spending spree that accompanied it and a battery of new homeland security measures instituted after Sept. 11.

Let's put that into perspective, shall we?  $2.5 trillion over 10 years is $250 billion per year.  That's roughly half of the deficit each year between October 2001 and September 2007, a quarter of the deficit for October 2007 to September 2008 (FY 2008), one seventh of FY 2009, one sixth of FY 2010, and one fifth of the deficit for just the first half of FY '11 (October 2010 to Mach 2011).  Over the whole period the deficits are approaching 4 times what we have spent on the war.

How have we paid for this? Entirely through borrowing. Spending on the wars and on added security at home has accounted for more than one-quarter of the total increase in U.S. government debt since 2001. And not only did we fail to pay as we went for the wars, the George W. Bush administration also successfully pushed to cut taxes in 2001 and again in 2003, which added further to the debt. This toxic combination of lower revenues and higher spending has brought the country to its current political stalemate.

Entirely through borrowing.  Sure, but what else could be described that way from the Federal budget?  Anything that costs less than the average trillion dollars a year over the last 10.  For FY 2006 we can make this claim of Social Security or Medicare and Medicaid, or Everything except entitlement spending, interest on the debt, and Defense as well.  It's a meaningless statement to make.

There is only one other time in U.S. history that a war was financed entirely through borrowing, without raising taxes: when the Colonies borrowed from France during the Revolutionary War.

Which leaves us with the question, "So what?"  Are we meant to think that the War for Independence was not worth it? 

Even if we were to leave Afghanistan and Iraq tomorrow, our war debt would continue to rise for decades. Future bills will include such things as caring for military veterans, replacing military equipment, rebuilding the armed forces and paying interest on all the money we have borrowed. And these costs won't be insignificant.

Not insignificant, but also not out of line with anything else that we spend money on.  Especially not with the explosive growth of the deficits since 2008.  It's the mandatory spending that's growing at a rapid rate, not discretionary spending, and as such a much more meaningful place to pin this rose.

History has shown that the cost of caring for military veterans peaks decades after a conflict. Already, half of the returning troops have been treated in Veterans Administration medical centers, and more than 600,000 have qualified to receive disability compensation. At this point, the bill for future medical and disability benefits is estimated at $600 billion to $900 billion, but the number will almost surely grow as hundreds of thousands of troops still deployed abroad return home.

Which is an argument for what?  Cutting care?  Probably not.  Veterans are far too valuable a bargaining chip in budget fights and in the ongoing effort to ensure that we can no longer project military power, by continuing to increase those costs.  It's just more of the same, we shouldn't have fought the war.  That's a silly position as it can't be changed now.

And it isn't just in some theoretical future that the wars will affect the nation's economy: They already have. The conditions that precipitated the financial crisis in 2008 were shaped in part by the war on terror. The invasion of Iraq and the resulting instability in the Persian Gulf were among the factors that pushed oil prices up from about $30 a barrel in 2003 to historic highs five years later, peaking at $140 a barrel in current dollars in 2008. Higher oil prices threatened to depress U.S. economic activity, prompting the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates and loosen regulations. These policies were major contributors to the housing bubble and the financial collapse that followed.

Complete tripe.  Oil price raises were the product of speculation in the market.  You can't press interest lower than 0% which is where the Fed's had it for longer than 2008, and the loose regulations were a product of the previous two decade's activity in Congress, not some domino effect beginning with 9/11.

Now, the war's huge deficits are shaping the economic debate, and they could keep Congress from enacting another round of needed stimulus spending to help the country climb out of its economic malaise. Many of these war debts are likely to continue to compromise America's investments in its future for decades.

Show me that the stimulus that was passed did any good and we'll talk.  You want to get serious about fixing this economy?  Raise interest rates, lower taxes (or don't raise them), and reduce regulations—target those that favor big over small.

For years, the public failed to adequately question how it was possible that we could spend and borrow so freely, with so few consequences. But now the painful legacy of these decisions has become clear. Throughout the past decade, Congress routinely approved huge "emergency" appropriations to pay for the wars. This process preempted the usual scrutiny and debate that accompanies large spending bills. In part, this is because the U.S. lacks the basic accounting tools necessary for informed debate. Our future debts from the war are not listed anywhere in the federal government's budget. We don't even know for certain where the money has been spent. The Pentagon hasn't produced a clean financial audit in the 20 years since government auditing began, nor has it developed an accounting framework that would allow an assessment of the future costs of current decisions. This has almost certainly increased the overall cost of the war.

This is the only paragraph of this article that was worth publishing.  It's also indistinguishable in many respects from similar comments made by Tea Party members, much less Harvard faculty members and Nobel laureates.

Our response to Sept. 11 has weakened both the current economy and our future economic prospects. And that legacy of economic weakness — combined with the erosion of the credibility of our military power and of our "soft power" — has undermined, rather than strengthened, our national security.

Our unquestioning approach to entitlements and 'damn the torpedoes' approach to Social Security is every bit as citable as a contributing factor to the debt and much more so to our economic weakness.  The erosion of our power is a feature, not a bug, of the current administration's policies and the authors' lamenting it here is what lacks credibility.

Nearly 10 years into the Afghanistan war, the violence in that country shows little sign of abating. August was the deadliest month of the war yet for U.S. troops, and there were also multiple attacks on Afghan security forces, government officials and civilians. The surge in violence comes as NATO is drawing down and handing over security control to national forces. But tens of thousands of U.S. military personnel are scheduled to remain in Afghanistan through the end of 2014.

That's what we signed up for.  August's fatality count is skewed by one large event, 25 lives lost in one helicopter crash—with such a low casualty rate—the lowest in any war we've ever engaged in, it's hard for them to make those statistics as dire as their 'well intentioned' arguments require.  If anything,  spikes in violence and enemy activity should signal that it's too soon to hand over security control.

The costs of fighting the war on terror have already been far higher than they needed to be. The U.S. should not take on even greater war debt without understanding the true costs of continuing down that path.

Define "need to be" with regard to national security or with regard to a new 9/11 type attack.  What's the "real cost" then?

Obama to seek a new tax rate for wealthy

President Barack Obama is expected to seek a new base tax rate for the wealthy to ensure that millionaires pay at least at the same percentage as middle income taxpayers.

A White House official said the proposal would be included in the president's proposal for long term deficit reduction that he will announce Monday. The official spoke anonymously because the plan has not been officially announced.

Obama is going to call it the "Buffett Rule" for Warren Buffett, the billionaire investor who has complained that rich people like him pay a smaller share of their income in federal taxes than middle-class taxpayers.

Buffett wrote in a New York Times op-ed piece last month that he and his rich friends "have been coddled long enough by a billionaire-friendly Congress."

Promising the impossible. Or more likely, justifying the desired by citing the impossible.  There is a level of wealth after which the person in question will NEVER pay one cent more in taxes than they choose to.  Buffet is well beyond that point.

Pennsylvania to take Signaleer's Advice?

"Democracy may get a whole new look when it comes to presidential politics in 2012. The Electoral College will still bring the next commander in chief to the White House, but tweaks to the system could change the rules of the game."So wrote Tom Curry for MSNBC online; Pennsylvania ponders Electoral College revamp

Here are links to previous Signaleer posts on this subject:

http://signaleer.blogspot.com/2004/11/electoral-college-reform.html

http://signaleer.blogspot.com/2004/11/electoral-college-reform-ii.html

So, I'm already on record as favoring the Pennsylvania proposal.  I think all the States should do it.

How Paranoia Kills Children

In Pakistan, the government is threatening to arrest parents who do not allow their children to receive the polio vaccine. Those refusing families that are Afghan, will be forced to return to Afghanistan. For years, Islamic radicals, including some clergy, urged parents to refuse vaccination, as the radicals believed the vaccination was a Western plot to poison Moslem children. This particular fantasy has been rattling around for nearly a decade, and has prevented the UN from wiping out polio. Like small pox (which was wiped out in the 1970s), once there are no people with polio, the disease is gone for good (it can only survive in a human host). The Islamic clerics urging parents not to vaccinate their children against polio, are providing the disease with hosts, and keeping it going. Last year, 17,000 children were not vaccinated in northern Pakistan because of this paranoid fantasy. Thus radical Islam continues to kill people in places, and ways, you never hear of.

http://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htterr/articles/20110916.aspx

ANSF and ISAF Forces conclude response to attack in Kabul

Insurgents attacked the International Security Assistance Force Afghanistan headquarters and the U.S. Embassy in Kabul on Tuesday with small arms fire from outside the secure zone surrounding these compounds.

Afghan National Security Forces, who have the lead for security in Kabul, responded immediately, to include Afghan National Army helicopters providing air support. Afghan and Coalition forces trapped the insurgents in the partially-constructed, multi-story building they were using as a firing position, and conducted a methodical, floor-by-floor clearing operation. The Ministry of the Interior is reporting six insurgents killed in the operation.

"The people of Afghanistan have chosen a path to the future withTransition," said Gen. John R. Allen, ISAF commander. "In this attack, the insurgency succeeded in killing Afghan civilians, once again demonstrating their bankrupt ideology, which has been rejected by the Afghan people. Afghan security forces responded bravely, contained the insurgents, and systematically eliminated the threat. Once again, I was impressed by the courage, skill and fighting spirit of Afghan forces.

The insurgency has again failed.

http://www.centcom.mil/press-releases/ansf-and-isaf-forces-conclude-response-to-attack-in-kabul?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+UsCentcomPressReleases+%28US+CENTCOM+Press+Releases%29

An Era Passes

European nations, which invented and perfected the main battle tank (MBT) a century ago, are rapidly shedding their heavily armed and armored behemoths. Two decades ago, there were over 80,000 MBTs in Europe (most in Russia and Eastern Europe). By the end of the decade, over 80 percent of those will be gone. Most died of old age, replaced by cheaper MRAPs (bomb-proof trucks) and wheeled combat vehicles like the U.S. Stryker. European nations no longer see much possibility of large armor battles, but do perceive a need for armored vehicles suitable for peacekeeping. That's where MRAPs and Stryker type vehicles come in.

http://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htarm/articles/20110915.aspx

Switchblade Enters Service

After a year of successful testing, the U.S. Army has ordered over a hundred Switchblade UAVs for troop use. The Switchblade is a one kilogram (2.2 pound) expendable (used only once) UAV that can be equipped with explosives. The Switchblade is launched from its shipping and storage tube, at which point wings flip out, a battery powered propeller starts spinning and a vidcam begins broadcasting images to the controller. The Switchblade is operated using the same gear the larger (two kg/4.4 pound) Raven UAV employs. The Switchblade can also be launched from the 70mm rocket tubes used on army helicopters. Moving at up to a kilometer a minute, the Switchblade can stay in the air for 20-40 minutes (depending on whether or not it is armed with explosives.) The armed version can be flown to a target and detonated, having about the same explosive effect as a hand grenade. Thus the Switchblade could be useful for ground troops, to get at an enemy taking cover in a hard to see location. Switchblade completed development two years ago. Technically a guided missile, the use of Switchblade as a reconnaissance tool encouraged developers to refer to it as a UAV.

http://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htweap/articles/20110913.aspx

2996 Tribute (Repost)

This post will stay at the top for a week (9/11 to 9/18).
Michell Lee Robotham worked on the 103rd floor of World Trade Center Two. Michell was the mother of Alexandra, who was five years old at the time of the attacks on the World Trade Center. Michell lived in Kearny, New Jersey, but was originally from Wisconsin and had also lived in Houston, Texas, before coming to New York, where she was hired as a Help Desk Manager for Aon Risk Services (now Aon Corporation).
Michell is survived by her daughter, Alexandra, her mother and two brothers, Rodney and Travis.

Thanks to A Lady's Ruminations for pointing the tribute out.
(Origingally Posteed 9/11/2006)

Economy Root Causes

Professor Stephen Carter almost gets it right.  High marks, in fact, until the last sentence.  In it he describes a conversation with a small or medium business owner on a late flight.

From the article:

“I don’t understand why Washington does this to us," he resumes. By "us," he means people who run businesses of less- than-Fortune-500 size. He tells me that it doesn’t much matter which party is in office. Every change of power means a whole new set of rules to which he and those like him must respond. ‘‘I don’t understand,” he continues, “why Washington won’t just get out of our way and let us hire.”
There are a lot of responses I could offer at this point. But I am interested now; I prefer to let him talk.
It isn’t just hiring that is too unpredictable, he says. He feels the same way about investing. He has never liked stock markets; he prefers to put cash directly into businesses he likes in return for a small stake, acting, in short, as a small- time venture capitalist.
“Can’t do that now,” he says. For people like him -- people who aren’t filthy rich -- it has become too hard to pick winners. But he doesn’t blame the great information advantages enjoyed by insiders. He blames Washington, once more, for creating a climate of uncertainty. 

and:

My seat-mate seems to think that I’m missing the point. He’s not anti-government. He’s not anti-regulation. He just needs to know as he makes his plans that the rules aren’t going to change radically. Big businesses don’t face the same problem, he says. They have lots of customers to spread costs over. They have “installed base.”
For medium-sized firms like his, however, there is little wiggle room to absorb the costs of regulatory change. Because he possesses neither lobbyists nor clout, he says, Washington doesn’t care whether he hires more workers or closes up shop.
We will be landing shortly in Minneapolis. I ask him what, precisely, he thinks is the proper role of government as it relates to business. 

But here's the problem sentence at the very end:

Recessions have complex causes, but, as the man on the aisle reminded me, we do nothing to make things better when the companies on which we rely see Washington as adversary rather than partner.  (emphasis added)

Do you see the issue?  In the article the unnamed business man, asked what the proper lole of government should be, states that he wants government to act more like an assistant than a boss.  Yet Prof. Carter comes back to partner.  Government partnership in business, and usually that's big business, is the problem.  They are already partnered with the big businesses in crony entanglements creating the environment described in the article.

George Washington is supposed to have said that government, like fire, is a dangerous servant and a fearful master.  True provenance of the quote aside, the truth of the content of it should be plain.  Even in wishing for an assistant, business may get some bad surprises (and you can't fire this assistant for screwing up), but in no wise should government be the boss, even if it can successfully divest itself of the competing partnerships its accumulated.

Armor: ASVs For Afghanistan

Armor: ASVs For Afghanistan: Afghan commanders were so impressed with the American M1117 ASVs (Armored Security Vehicles) that the U.S. has agreed to supply over 500 of them to the Afghan Army. These will be used, as American Army M1117s are, mainly for security duties. M1117s are basically scout and patrol vehicles, carrying only four troops. These vehicles can mount either 12.7mm machine-guns or Mk19 40mm automatic grenade launchers in their turrets. The vehicles cost about one million dollars each. One thing about the M1117 that appeals to the Afghans is that the vehicle can withstand hits by RPG rockets. The RPG is the favorite Taliban anti-vehicle weapon. The ASV is also smaller than the MRAPs favored by NATO troops, and more nimble.

Army Could Shed Up To 15 BCTs In Push To Meet Budget Savings Goal

End Strength Cuts Seen as Inevitable

The Army has offered to cut up to 15 brigade combat teams to meet defense savings goals negotiated by the White House and Congress, Inside the Army has learned.

The proposal, briefed to the high-level Deputy's Advisory Working Group in recent weeks, offers a range of cuts in personnel that could bring the number of active-duty BCTs from 45 down to 30 in the most extreme case, according to an official familiar with the deliberations.

A plan to reorganize the Army's premiere fighting formations has been in the works for some time. Then-Training and Doctrine Command Chief Gen. Martin Dempsey last year ordered an exploration of the effects that a plus-up of maneuver forces in BCTs would bring. The force-design move, as envisioned then, was expected to reduce the total number of BCTs by 10, but increase their size and fighting capability.

It continues, but here's the wind-up:

From an operational perspective, fewer BCTs would mean the Army "can't be in as many places; they can't be in as many cities at the same time, because they won't have the headquarters to control independent operations," the service official said. But the goal is to retain sufficient combat power for a "big fight" as well as a set of smaller fights in which units would need to operate independently, the official added.

Some analysts see the appetite for long ground engagements, like Iraq or Afghanistan, waning among administration officials and the public. Inside the Army reported last month that Joint Staff officials readying their annual Operational Availability study had been instructed to identify force cuts that could be made under the assumption that the U.S. military would no longer take up the hugely expensive mission of rebuilding wartorn nations (ITA, July 7, p1).

As I've been saying, this is far more than a move against "long ground engagements," it's a calculated move to destroy the US' ability to project force.

And don't fall for the hokum about increasing size and capability.  That was a reorganization measure when it was studied.  Now, it's a budget move, so we'll just reduce the active duty Army combat arms forces by one third.

Strategy Page reads....

The Laws Of War And Cyber Warriors

Cyber War is confounding lawyers because attacks via the Internet can do enormous damage, and are sometimes carried out by civilians. How do you deal with that? There are rules for hackers in uniform, but not for the irregulars. One suggestion is to identify and seize hackers who have done damage and put them before a tribunal to determine if the hacker has rights as a POW under the Geneva Convention. Thus one has to determine if the hacker wore a military uniform? Was the hacker commanded by officers responsible for his conduct (that's not what hacking is all about)? Did the hacker conduct his activities in accordance with the recognized rules of war? Definitely not. It used to be that if an armed civilian attacked you under these circumstances, you could kill them, even if they surrendered. But the 1949 Geneva Conventions prohibited this (but did allow your troops to shoot back at armed civilians). Thus if you can catch the hacker working a keyboard, you can open fire. But you can't take him alive and later execute him. Not right away. If a hacker caused damage that killed people, a murder charge, and even the death penalty, could stick.

Soaring Admission Standards *

There are no more waivers. This was a practice that has been declining over the last three years. Waivers allow otherwise qualified (physically and mentally) applicants to enlist, despite having a police record. These are called "moral waivers". In 2003, 4.6 percent of all recruits benefited from this. In 2006, it was 7.9 percent. Some journalists believed this would lead to an increase in criminal activity on army bases, especially involving young guys who were in gangs before they joined the military. That would make a great headline. This turned out to be the case. In 2006, 16 of 10,000 criminal investigations were gang related. That was up from ten in 2005, five in 2004 and four in 2003. In 2006, there were 61 gang related incidents in 18 army bases. There are believed to be several hundred soldiers who still maintain their gang affiliations. Not enough to be a real problem, but enough to get your editor off your back. But troops enlisted via waivers tend to have a more difficult time completing the training, or have discipline and self-control problems later on. Thus no more waivers.

* Note:  Standards have not actually changed.  Just as they were never lowered, they have not raised.  Its simply the effects of supply and demand--supply exceeds demand, the appearance is that standards go up because recruiters can be picky and vice versa.

Misunderstanding The Afghanistan Model

Any future war will involve smart bombs and Special Forces. But there is no "Afghanistan Model." What we saw in Afghanistan was what went on as a part of the Vietnam War. Against a determined enemy, expect hard fighting, and being on the receiving end of nasty surprises. In Libya, it's unclear what the end of the war will really look like. The "Afghanistan Model" is wishful, and dangerous, thinking.

Feeding Civil War Fever In Afghanistan

Karzai also points out that Afghanistan cannot afford to maintain 300,000 soldiers and police by themselves. If the Americans and other Western countries cut off their aid, the Afghan government will have to disband most of the army and police units. He didn't have to mention that much of the new equipment and weapons would then be stolen or sold off by corrupt officials. Maybe that's why Karzai also complained that there should be more "ethnic balance" in the security forces. This is another way of saying that not enough Pushtuns are joining the security forces. Karzai is a Pushtun, as are about 40 percent of Afghans. There are twice as many Pushtuns across the border in Pakistan, where Pushtuns are 15 percent of a much larger population. While only a small minority of Afghan Pushtuns support the Taliban, all Pushtuns support their tribes, and the Pushtun people in general. In other words, the Pushtuns want their fair share of all the new weapons. Karzai, and many other Afghan leaders, fear that the flood of new weapons and military equipment will simply make another civil war more likely. That's because the national government only exists because the tribal leaders and warlords allow it. If the massive foreign aid (which is funneled through the national government) disappears, there will be no reason to pay much attention to the central government.

Afghans Anxious About Troops Departures

History, they worry here, could be about to repeat itself.

Many Afghans felt abandoned by the U.S. after 1989, when the Soviet army withdrew from Afghanistan. U.S. support to mujahedeen fighters battling the Soviets dried up quickly and Afghanistan sank into civil war. That was followed by the rise of the Taliban and the Sept. 11 attacks by al-Qaida, which used Afghanistan as a sanctuary.

"If America leaves our country, the situation will get worse," said Khaidad Mahmand, a 28-year-old mobile phone seller in Jalalabad. "The Taliban are strong and if the Americans leave, they will get stronger. In a very short period of time, the Taliban will come in and take over the government. Unfortunately, our Afghan forces don't have the capability to handle the situation."

Lt. Gen. William B. Caldwell, who is in charge of training Afghan security forces, says the army and police are performing better than the Afghan people think. He insists that the Afghan security forces will meet President Hamid Karzai's goal of taking the lead from coalition forces by the end of 2014.

"People's perception of the Afghan forces is two years old," he said.

But positive progress reports from the U.S.-led coalition have done little to curb the fear.

People smile when they are asked about their future plans because so many Afghans, long accustomed to danger and uncertainty, have learned to live for the day.

"Future personal plans? That's funny," said Abdul Hakim Jan, a 34-year-old businessman in Kandahar. "We stopped making plans related to anything years ago. ... We all are just confused right now."

http://www.military.com/news/article/afghans-anxious-about-troops-departures.html?ESRC=eb.nl